Applied Security Analysis 2007

First Recommendation Might Work Out

2008-01-11T06:10:00.000-08:00

My first recommendation at my employer might work out, thanks to BofA. CFC was dicey for a long time but it is always nice when a much higher rated company takes you out. Also in an insanely fortune case of timing, we added to our position at 60.5 yesterday morning before it went to 82 yesterday afternoon and 96 today. Our add yesterday also reduced our cost into the 70s. The new accounts that yesterday was their first purchase will think we are geniuses.

Program Update

2007-09-21T05:59:00.000-07:00

I went to an ASAP alumni event in Milwaukee last night. A decent turn out (20+) it was just to hear what Mark Ready has planned for the program.

820 Intermediate Investment Theory - they are integrating it with 4 ASAP alumni presentations (Betsi Hill, Corporate Credit Analysis, Julie Van Cleave, Sector Weighting/Rotation, Phil Gross, ?, Tom Stevens, Quantitative Strategies). They will actually have assignments that tie in with those topics.
635 Security Analysis with Mucklow- required course in the 2nd semester of the first year.
On Fridays they have alumni come in for the second years. Someone from the second years (rotating) has to give them a pitch and then answer questions. There is also a segment where the alum reviews the portfolio and randomly selects names to question.
The students have meeting on their own. They are to take minutes (part of their grade) and pass that on to Mark. He then will have the student that pitched a stock into his office to go over the pitch to him and answer any questions.
Mark and the dean indicated that the target class size with increase going forward. They would like to get to 20-25, but only with quality candidates
There were several initiatives they mentioned related to recruiting, particularly in targeting candidates from NY and women.

I don't have my notes with me so I may add some things later through comments. We will have to see how it works out. They still are inflexible on waiving core requirements and no FI course yet. Alisa Robertson (alumni relations) was already asking me whether I would be coming to the Fall Investment Conference next year.

One year checkup

2007-09-20T17:11:00.000-07:00

So, one year later, let's see how we're doing:

Anything we touched that was tech has been gold. Even WDC has come back to make a new high. And AMD? The short covering did come, but it wasn't very painful. Meanwhile INTC is still rippin'. Times are good for Intel. Adam's IBM and Silent Dan's CTXS still movin'. And why the hell didn't we buy google? Now that I cover it - best business model out there. ZERO competition so far.

My healthcare stocks have been a mixed bag, but fortunately no losses. HAE is up about 10% above our cost. The CPSI trade shorted against the SPY has been about even money. Thank the dividend. Cost of financing may help that small cap...maybe hospitals will spend? UNH did surprise. Stock hasn't budged, actually down 2 bucks. DGX is up about 8%. Oh, and then there's CYTC up 50%, then taken out. 75% gain, thanks. Man, that was a big fat pitch... a 30% grower at 19x? Duh...

How about our econ stuff? Unemployment? Off, but not terribly. Market Forecast? 7-12%? Up 15%. Ok. Fed Cuts? Sweetness. Housing? Dead ringer. Inflation? Got that one a bit off. Just watch the CRB...seems to work alright.

I think we batted a decent average. Let's keep it up!

For posterity

2007-09-17T18:37:00.001-07:00

I just wanted to say that we were right. BJ Rowe, Karnes and I forecast that the Fed would be cutting 1 or 2 times by year end. They start the cutting tomorrow.

Has the economy fallen into the crapper? No not yet, and yet they will still be cutting. OK board, you need to call up the people in charge of the US economy and the markets and tell them that what is going on is inconsistant, just like ASAP 2007's forecast.

I had to post it because there are only rare moments in this business where you can say I told you so. Plus no one is reading this anyway.

You guys suck

2007-08-17T16:17:00.000-07:00

Jas'll be the only one that sees this. How did you guys totally miss out on all things technological?

How'd the CFA exam go for y'all?

ASAP 2007 - done

2007-05-17T15:03:00.000-07:00

We're finished. A flash in the pan. A throwback to the old school that uses no technology. Hell, half our guys won't read this, b/c they don't know what a blog is. It's all good. Congrats to everyone and may you find happiness out there somewhere!

Blue Shirts Everyday

2006-11-30T09:43:00.000-08:00

Since Sweetie is clearly the asap leader in "the get" (offers), I say, it's blue shirts to every interview from now on.

JK - you out there?

2006-11-30T07:38:00.000-08:00

Yo Karnes...do these initial claims numbers matter?

Caremark and CVS?

2006-11-01T07:53:00.000-08:00

Ah, and so it goes, one of my probable buy recommendations might get swallowed up. CMX is cheap. Too cheap and this Walmart stuff just isn't relevant to them. The market has chosen to price CMX as though Walmart will kill Caremark, and it's just not true. But now CVS is talking about putting CMX under its roof. My opinion on the deal? Unless CMX gets something in the 70's, run. CVS stock is overvalued, and I want no part of it. They know it too, that's why they want to buy CMX with stock. Sure, the two might be a good fit, but the market is right to be killing CVS today.

Google Buys YouTube

2006-10-10T09:44:00.000-07:00

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061010/google_youtube.html?.v=8

Where is the talk of the copyright litigation this opens Google up to? JL mentioned that the journal discussed it but it looks like Mr. Market is shrugging it off. What are the longest puts available for GOOG?

Options options options

2006-10-04T17:56:00.000-07:00

The journal this week noted, wisely, that Harrah's saw some awfully interesting option activity two days before the Apollo / Texas Pacific buyout proposal. On Thursday, SIX TIMES August's call option trading volume was exchanged. In 635 I had to present and did some quick math. Someone might have turned $2M into $10M in a mere three days. Until they have to give it back...

There'll be hell to pay if you don't take a shower!

2006-09-08T11:43:00.000-07:00

Ah, the semester is starting. Good times. (Had to test this thing by creating some kind of a post!)